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When home prices make a big move -- either up or down -- it usually draws a lot of media attention. Recently, Oakland, Calif., homeowners were treated to the following front-page headline: "Oakland home prices up 43 percent." It sounded too good to be true.
If you read beyond the headline, you discovered that the meteoric rise in home prices didn't mean that your home had appreciated 43 percent. The reported increase was not in the rate of home price appreciation. It was an increase in the median home price.
Reports of increases and decreases in home prices are typically quoted as changes in the median home price. This can be misleading because changes in the median price don't indicate how much appreciation or depreciation has taken place.
The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.
Changes in median price measure changes in market activity. When there are more buyers buying less expensive homes than there are buyers buying more expensive homes, the median price falls. Conversely, when there are more buyers buying more expensive homes than there are buyers buying less expensive homes, the median price rises.
The median price indicates which price range is most active. Not all price ranges experience the same market activity at any given time.
So, when you read that the median home price increased 6 percent in the last year, this doesn't necessarily mean that your home increased 6 percent in value. It could have increased more or less in value. Likewise, if the median price were to drop 5 percent, this wouldn't necessarily mean that home values dropped by 5 percent. In fact, they might have dropped more.
For example, in California, the median sale price of existing single family homes dropped from approximately $202,000 in May of 1989 to about $185,000 in April of 1994. But during that time, the actual market value of homes in some areas of Southern California dropped a whopping 40 percent.
FIRST-TIME TIP:
It's difficult to calculate actual rates of appreciation and depreciation in home prices. If homes resold on a regular basis, without being remodeled or modified between sales, it would be relatively easy to figure out the actual change in value.
The true indicator of the value of your property is the price a ready, willing and able buyer will pay. The price a buyer will pay will vary over time depending on economic factors like supply and demand, consumer confidence, the unemployment rate and interest rates.
Local real estate agents, who are actively working in your local market place, are the best source of information about the approximate value of your home. These agents will be able to inform you about subtle changes in the market that will affect the value of your home. Most agents will provide you with a complimentary market analysis in the hopes of generating future business.
A refinance appraisal may not accurately reflect the current market value of your home. For example, one homeowner had his home appraised for a refinance in February 2001. Three months later, he listed his home for sale and based his list price on the appraisal price. The home ended up selling for 14 percent less than he anticipated.
THE CLOSING:
In a changing market, comparable sales from several months ago can be out of date.
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